European market research firm Canalys predicts shipments of “smart phones” (phones with PDA capabilities) will double in the “EMEA” region (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) this year, and will exceed those of ordinary PDA-like handheld computers by year end.

These results come from Canalys' new report, EMEA Mobile Device Trends 2003, which projects that smart phone shipments will hit 3.3 million units in 2003 and handhelds (including wireless-enabled ones) will reach 2.8 million units, representing growth in both segments. The report breaks down the numbers and forecasts by country, device category, and SWOT analysis of main vendors including FSC, HP, Handspring, Motorola, Nokia, O2, Orange, Palm, Sony, Sony Ericsson, and Toshiba.

Here are some excerpts from a Canalys statement summarizing the report's findings . . .

• “Vendors should only launch wireless handhelds if they can differentiate themselves substantially from the devices that are already out there. If they are happy to dominate a niche part of the market then fine, but they need to offer a device capable of doing that . . .”
• Chris Jones, Canalys director and senior analyst, pointed out some of the convergence-related problems vendors from the voice and data worlds are having. “For a start, the channels don't know how to sell a wireless handheld: the mobile phone retailers struggle demonstrating the benefits to potential customers, while the IT/data-centric channels don't really want to get into the tariff debate that becomes essential with a SIM-dependent device. Similar problems apply to smart phones, but mobile phone retailers will generally find it easier to sell something perceived as a mobile phone with added features than a less familiar type of device.”
• Canalys says today's wireless handhelds make poor phones and are mostly bulky, expensive, and feature-poor compared to the leading non-wireless handheld models.
• How do smart phones rate as PDA-like devices? Buss said, “improvements are being made and gradually a lot of people will realise that the benefits of having just one device outweigh the usability compromises they may have to make. There will be users that prefer the larger screen and other characteristics of a handheld, and that's why we expect handheld shipments to continue growing for the next few years. As more phones come with Bluetooth integrated, and GPRS pricing becomes less prohibitive, the handheld vendors can turn this environment to their advantage.”
• Despite the positive projections for smart phones, Canalys points out that less expensive phones offering little more than color, MMS, and an integrated camera in a compact format are likely to appeal to many more consumers and will limit sales of true smart phones until users and retailers develop their understanding of what additional benefits the more sophisticated devices bring.

The full Canalys report is available for €2950 (Euro) from Canalys.com.

The above chart is copyright © 2003, Canalys.com Ltd. and reproduced by LinuxDevices.com with permission.

 
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