Market analyst firm In-Stat/MDR recently completed a research study on the worldwide market for Tablet PCs and Smart Displays. Despite the current gloomy economy and cautious IT budgets, Instat/MDR predicts that these new devices may be able to kickstart the PC market — though they caution that the adoption rate won't be fast.

“Tablet PCs are a solid technology that is showing some early promise,” according In-Stat/MDR senior analyst Brian O'Rourke. “Vendors claim that initial sales of these products have exceeded expectations, however, decreased corporate IT spending is expected to lead to slow adoption by the large enterprises that are expected to be the biggest purchasers of Tablet PCs,” O'Rourke added. Initial sales have been promising in some vertical applications and overall growth will be solid in 2003 and 2004, with more rapid growth expected in 2005, he noted.

“Smart Displays are wireless devices that can recreate the desktop PC experience anywhere in the home,” continued O'Rourke. “Initial sales have been slow, and with a limited number of vendors and limited functionality for the price, this is expected to remain the case for the remainder of 2003. It is not expected that Web browsing, email, and the ability to view PC files will be enough to convince consumers to buy Smart Displays at price points which currently start at $1,000 for a 10″ model,” said O'Rourke. “Multimedia applications, such as video streaming, which should be available in the second generation Smart Displays by 2004, are expected to convince consumers to take a serious look at this product.”

Highlights of Instat/MDR's findings . . .

• In 2003 and 2004, Tablet PCs will make up 1% to 2% of notebook PC shipments, but will break out in 2005, increasing to 3.5% of notebook PC sales. By this point, it is expected that Tablet PCs will begin to put a serious dent in the market for ultraportable notebook PCs, which are targeted at the same market as Tablet PCs.
• North America, particularly the US, will dominate early Tablet PC shipments. Europe will be second in the early years, with Japan third, due primarily to a long recession that is depressing corporate spending levels. However, over time, shipments in Japan and Asia will pick up. One significant reason is the advantage of the pen-based Tablet PC in accommodating East Asian character-based languages.
• Because the Smart Display is designed to be a slave to a home desktop PC, it makes sense to expect Smart Displays to have early success in North America, where home PC penetration is highest. Another factor to look at is the consumer adoption of broadband, which is growing, particularly in the US, Japan and South Korea. Broadband in the home should be good for the Smart Display market because broadband means always on, instant access and high bandwidth, which should be conducive to Smart Display use, especially when video capability becomes available. In Europe, consumer broadband adoption has been slow, especially in the UK, France and Germany. Overall, the US is expected to be the primary market for Smart Displays, for at least the next two to three years.

The report, Tablet PCs & Smart Displays: Pushing the PC Envelope contains five-year unit shipments, selling price forecasts, and profiles of leading vendors for both Tablet PCs and Smart Displays. Information about obtaining the report is here.

Copyright © 2003, Instat/MDR. All rights reserved. Reproduced by LinuxDevices.com with permission.

 
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