Scottsdale, AZ — (press release excerpt) — As the rapid development of palm-top computing and digital cellular telephony continues, and the resulting demand for lightweight information appliances increases, the Java VM (Virtual Machine) market will rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 83.5% from 2000 to 2005, according to a report just released by hi-tech research firm href=”http://www.instat.com/catalog/cat-semi-digeng.htm” target=”_blank”>Cahners In-Stat/MDR. Worldwide Java VM extensions, software interpreters, and accelerator units will collectively reach 721 million units by 2005, with Java accelerators experiencing the highest rate of growth.

Mobile computing appliances are becoming indispensable through their ability to access the Internet from any place via telephone, modem or wireless connection, says Max Baron, Principal Analyst for In-Stat/MDR?s Digital Engines Service. A significant rise in worldwide-shipped Java-enabled units will start in 2002 as 3G-technology is deployed at rates that justify subscriber interest in Internet-ready wireless devices. As a result the demand for Java accelerators will increase. Over the next five years, Java VM intellectual property (IP) revenues are not expected to support more than a few providers. Providers will need to apply the principles of accelerators to other key functions required by the Internet, such as imaging, video, and audio, says Baron. With time, the combined unit gains of software VM interpreters and Java VM extensions to ISAs (Instruction Set Architectures) will reduce the value of VM accelerator cores and will motivate their providers to extend their usefulness beyond Java or even replace Java VM with other functions.

In-Stat/MDR has also found that:

• Internet-enabled cell phones contribute the majority of Java VM units in 2001.

• Java VM software interpreters are still leading the market in 2001, with 97% share; by 2005, however, with a 30% share of market, they will barely make second place. Java ISA extensions should gradually gain share after 2002, growing by a healthy 103.3% CAGR over the five-year period.

• Most revenues from Java VM accelerators are expected to come from licensing fees, estimated at an average of $350,000 per license during calendar year 2001.

• The ARM architecture is the preferred microprocessor core for mobile devices. Intel's XScale and Motorola's recent purchase of an architectural license from ARM are critical in Arm's dominance of the mobile territory.

• Hardware-based Java accelerators claim to produce an average of five to ten times increase over the speed of a software-only approach. There are several of these types of accelerators currently in production: Arm's Jazelle, Nazomi's JSTAR, inSilicon's JVXtreme, the Parthus MachStream, Aurora VLSI's DeCaf, and Zucotto Wireless' Xpresso processor family.

The report, “Java Hits the Road: Accelerators in Mobile Applications” (#DE0102MF), covers calendar years 2000-2005 history and forecast of shipments of Java VM Intellectual Property via cores, software and combinations of the two. The report also covers battery-operated computing devices, browsers and Internet-enabled digital cellular telephones.

 
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