ABI Research has published a prediction of technologies it says are unlikely to achieve widespread adoption in 2006. Three key mobile technologies you probably won't see next year, according to ABI, are: broadcast mobile video, 100 Mbps WiFi, and high-speed cellular data transfer.

Here's why . . .

• Broadcast mobile video — two competing networks for multicasting video, from MediaFLO and Crown Castle Mobile Media, are expected to be up and running next year. The problem is, there won't be enough compatible handsets — no handset manufacturer has yet said when it will have digital video broadcast handsets available in commercial quantities, ABI says.
• 100 Mbps WiFi — earlier in the fall, ABI reported that efforts to establish the 100 Mbps 802.11n WLAN standard had stalled. Although “pre-802.11n” silicon, based on an early draft of the specification, should be available next year, real products using this technology will require interoperability certification, which is unlikely to occur until 2007, according to ABI.
• High-speed cellular data transfer — HSDPA (High-Speed Downlink Packet Access) handsets should hit the market sometime next year, but don't expect the promised 14.4 Mbps data rate, or even 7 Mbps, ABI says. Actual data rates for the initial handsets are likely to be less than 3 Mbps because the initial chipsets won't have the processing horsepower, and will consume too much power, in ABI's view. Additionally, mobile WiMAX won't be a factor next year either, since WiMAX-qualified handsets are not expected before 2007, according to ABI.

ABI's complete whitepaper, What Isn't Going to Happen in 2006, is available for download from the company's website with free registration.

 
This article was originally published on LinuxDevices.com and has been donated to the open source community by QuinStreet Inc. Please visit LinuxToday.com for up-to-date news and articles about Linux and open source.