Google Android will become the No. 2 mobile operating system in the world behind Symbian, edging past Research In Motion and Apple's iOS in 2010, according to new numbers from Gartner. Meanwhile, fifth-place Windows Phone will recover only slightly in 2011, and falter thereafter, the research firm adds.

Gartner says marketing and vendor support from carriers will drive Android to 17.7 percent market share through 2010. That is still well behind Symbian, which boasts a 40.1 percent share thanks to Nokia's legacy volume of phones, but ahead of RIM's 17.5 percent share and iOS at 15.4 percent.

However, it's said that Android, which is now being activated on 200,000 devices per day, will steadily creep up on Symbian over the next few years.

The OS, which held only 3.9 percent of the market through 2009, will nibble share from all corners of the worldwide market through 2014, when Symbian and Android will combine for 59.8 percent of mobile OS sales.

Thanks to Nokia's legacy volume of mobile phones, Symbian will lead with 30.4 percent in 2014, with Android just behind at 29.6 percent of worldwide market share, Gartner predicts.

Gartner Research analyst Roberta Cozza noted that Android's ascension to second place on the worldwide mobile OS list will happen two years earlier than Gartner predicted last year.

This status will be buoyed by the launch of new Android budget devices from Samsung, Sony Ericcson, LG and Motorola in the second half of the year that will "drive Android into mass market segments." This will serve to make Android the top OS in North America by 2010, Gartner says.

According to Gartner, open-source platforms will continue to dominate more than 60 percent of the market for smartphones. Single-source platforms, such as Apple's iOS and Research In Motion's OS, will increase in unit terms, but their growth rate will be "below market average and not enough to sustain share increase," the firm says.

Bad news for Microsoft?

Gartner apparently doesn't believe that the October launch of Windows Phone 7 will do much to restore Microsoft's standing in the mobile operating system space. The firm forecasts that Windows Mobile and Windows Phone 7 together will have a market share of 4.7 percent by the end of this year, recovering only slightly to 5.2 percent by the end of 2011.

By 2014, Windows Phone will be relegated to sixth place behind the Linux-based MeeGo in Gartner's worldwide OS ranking, the firm predicts.

However, these numbers differ from those in predictions made by rival research firm IDC earlier this week. According to the latter, Microsoft will have 6.8 percent worldwide market share by the end of 2010, and 9.8 percent share by the end of 2014. Growth rate for Microsoft will amount to 43.3 percent during the forecast period, the research firm added.

Further information

Gartner's touted predictions are part of its "Forecast: Mobile Communications Devices by Open Operating System, 2007-2014." Information on the complete document, which sells for $9,995, may be found on the company's website, here.

Clint Boulton is a writer for our sister publication eWEEK.

This article was originally published on LinuxDevices.com and has been donated to the open source community by QuinStreet Inc. Please visit LinuxToday.com for up-to-date news and articles about Linux and open source.