Linux will threaten Symbian dominance in the smartphone market, according to a research report published by analyst firm Research and Markets. The first-year report, “Defining The Market For Full-Feature Handsets,” examines the adoption of “full-featured operating systems” such as Linux, Windows Mobile, and Palm in the mobile handset market.

The report suggests that full-featured OSes will ship in 290 million handsets, or 42.5 percent of the total market, by 2008. Symbian will remain the market leader during the next two to three years, after which Linux will “threaten for long-term dominance,” the report says, noting that “Linux leads other platforms in openness and low cost — factors that are essentials to success in a market defined by tight margins, rapid innovation, and standards adherence.”

Additional predictions include:

• Microsoft will have difficulty meeting its global shipment goals for Windows Mobile
• Carriers will lose channel control because of third-party opportunities offered by full-featured OSes
• DRM will not succeed in stopping content “piracy”
• Full-featured OSes will enable handsets to compete in and alter many mobile electronics device categories
• Full-featured OSes will never gain more than 50 percent of the handset market, because some people simply do not need or will not pay for data services and other advanced functionality
• As shipments of full-featured handsets increase, Java will give way to native applications.

Additional details about the full report are available online.

Another recent report, from Canalys, found Linux to be the fastest growing mobile device OS, but still tiny with less than two percent of the total market.

 
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