By 2010, Linux and Windows will both overtake Symbian in the market for advanced mobile phone OSes, says a report from The Diffusion Group (TDG). Linux currently claims 23 percent of the market, while Symbian has 51 percent and Microsoft 17 percent, the research firm reports.

According to TDG, Linux enjoyed a “sizeable boost in shipments” during the second half of 2005, a trend expected to continue. Mobile phone shipments surged across the board in H2, 2005, according to Gartner.

TDG expects Microsoft to pass Linux eventually, by leveraging its OS products for both mobile phones and connected PDAs (Windows Smartphone and Pocket PC, respectively). TDG also expects Microsoft to effectively leverage tight integration with its other OS products, in both the enterprise and “advanced consumer” markets, to come out on top of the advanced phone OS market by 2010.

Other analyst firms researching advanced mobile phone OS shipments have been divided on whether to include phone-enabled PDAs, such as those powered by Microsoft's Windows Mobile “Pocket PC Phone” software. Gartner does not, and sees Linux trouncing Windows. IDG does include connected PDAs, and reported Linux trailing Windows in its most recent report.

In other words, TDG's report appears to be the first suggestion that Linux is currently ahead of Windows on mobile phones, even if phone-enabled PDAs powered by Pocket PC are counted.

Still, as noted earlier, TDG does not expect Linux to lead Microsoft for long. It forecasts a 29 percent share for Microsoft by the end of 2010, followed by a 26 percent share for Linux, and a 22 percent share for Symbian.

Lee Allen, lead mobile analyst at TDG, stated, “2007 will see the beginning of Symbian's decline in share, as the combined market penetration of Windows, Linux, and native Java begin to erode developer and vendor support for Symbian.”

Another analyst firm, ABI, says Symbian's marketshare is already slipping.

Other findings from TDG's study include:

• The emergence of the Chinese market, more sophisticated applications, and “seamless mobility” will drive adoption of more complex OSes
• The marketplace winner will be determined by factors such as integration with other platforms, how easy it is to develop applications, and the mix between looseness and tightness in the developer organization
• The main result of crossfire between Linux and Windows Mobile will be to pave the way for SavaJe and other native Java platforms

Additional findings are available in a TDG report entitled “Advanced Mobile Operating Systems: Analysis & Forecasts.” In addition to forecasts and analysis, the report includes technology overviews for Linux, MontaVista Linux, Palm OS, SavaJe, Symbian, and Windows Mobile 5.0. It costs $1,500 for five readers, or $2,500 for an unlimited number of readers internal to an organization.

 
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