Linux will ship in more than 200 million phones in 2012, up from 8.1 million in 2007, forecasts a new report from ABI. “The industry as a whole is rallying behind Linux,” even while acknowledging that significant barriers to widespread Linux adoption still exist, the market research firm suggests.

The ABI report is entitled “Mobile Linux: bringing license-free operating systems to smartphones and mid-tier devices.” It projects that by 2012, 127 million smartphones will be “enabled with a commercial Linux OS,” while another 76 million mid-tier devices will “incorporate Linux as an RTOS replacement” — up from “nearly zero” in 2007.

The ABI report suggests that mobile phone Linux distributors are finally beginning to overcome the “vertical and horizontal market fragmentation” that has been “the most fundamental issue” limiting commercial Linux growth. As evidence, the firm cites “growing collaboration between industry initiatives” — possibly referring to the LiMo Foundation, OSDL/FSG merger, the Esteemo JV by NEC and Panasonic, and the LiPS/OSDL alignment — as well as “the introduction of complete solutions,” including Trolltech's Greensuite and the Access Linux Platform.

Another obstacle being overcome is “issues with latency,” which have in the past prevented Linux's use as an RTOS replacement in single-processor phones. ABI research director Stuart Carlaw explained, “Innovative solutions such as PREEMPT_RT, the VirtualLogix virtual operating environment, and the use of RTOS executives over Linux kernels look set to deal with latency issues.”

On the downside, significant barriers remain before Linux emerges as a true market power, according to ABI. Carlaw explained, “The industry still needs to understand the total cost of ownership for Linux solutions, and it must create a common set of APIs to enable economies of scale for third-party developers.”

Although not mentioned by ABI in its summary findings report, current efforts to provide a common set of APIs for third-party developers include Access's interesting open-source “Hiker” application framework, and the open-source OpenMoko libraries.

ABI said its report explores the remaining barriers to widespread Linux adoption, presents a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) analysis, and forecasts Linux uptake in mobile devices, both as a commercial OS and as an RTOS replacement.

Carlaw concluded, “Linux in the cellular phone is not a question of 'if,' but 'when.'”

Last September, ARCchart called mobile phone marketshare leader Nokia's ultimate adoption of Linux for its flagship S60 phone line “not whether… but when.”

 
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