Updated Sep. 3, 2003 — Venture Development Corp. has reduced its five-year forecast for the growth of embedded Linux. The following adjustment to VDC's annual Linux report (2002 version available here) is reproduced with permission, as a service to the embedded Linux community.

Embedded Linux continues to grow: forecast through 2007 reduced

While the commercial use of Linux in the embedded market continues to grow, VDC has reduced its forecast through 2007. Included among the key factors impacting the forecast are:

• Changing competitive landscape and strategic direction of commercial embedded Linux software solution providers -- A number of companies have either failed, exited, or de-emphasized their embedded strategy over the last two years (i.e., BluePoint, Coventive, Neoware, Coollogic, Empower Technology, RidgeRun, Red Hat, etc.).
• An increasing number of hardware and platform solution providers offering a non-commercial open-source Linux distribution with drivers for their hardware (i.e., EMJ Embedded Systems, Octagon Systems, Micro/sys, Arcom, Accelent Systems, etc.) - In an effort to further reduce costs, developers could opt to use these solutions for their production shipments along with support from the open source community, forgoing the need to acquire and pay for a commercial solution.
• Traditional embedded OS solution providers adapting to the perceived benefits of open-source by increasingly making source code available, simplifying their pricing and engagement models, and developing a sense of community through start-up programs, developer conferences, online chats with product developers, and free downloadable software for evaluation.

“In the fragmented embedded market, Linux continues to gain momentum and serious consideration from embedded developers as an embedded operating system for development projects,” said Stephen Balacco, Embedded Software Analyst at VDC. “However, as traditional embedded software suppliers adapt and minimize the underlying key benefits of the open-source model, embedded Linux solution providers must be prepared to move the discussion beyond the boundaries of the operating system and focus on providing integrated platform solutions that empower the developer to accelerate product development, manage development costs, and minimize risk.”

Other findings and comments

Other findings and comments from VDC's latest analysis of the worldwide Embedded Linux market include . . .

• Shipments of embedded Linux OSs, complementary add-on components, and related services reached over $60 million during 2002. VDC forecasts worldwide shipments of embedded Linux development solutions through 2007.
• The Americas region accounted for the greatest share of shipments in 2002, however, both the Asia-Pacific and EMEA regions are expected to grow the fastest over the forecast period.
• Consumer electronics vertical market accounted for the greatest share of shipments in 2002. Going forward, VDC estimates consumer electronics, telecom/datacom, military/aerospace, and building/home automation markets to grow the fastest.
• In 2002, leading embedded Linux solution providers include MontaVista Software, Metrowerks, LynuxWorks, Red Hat, and TimeSys Corporation.
• In the fragmented embedded market, Linux has continued to gain momentum and serious consideration from embedded developers as an embedded operating system for development projects.
• Embedded developers currently using Linux cite the availability of source code, reduced licensing costs, reliability, communication capabilities, and support for key microprocessors as the key reasons driving the use of Linux.
• Embedded developers using Linux identified a high level of satisfaction in Linux meeting their technical and support requirements provided by their Linux solution source.
• The level of interest and commitment to use Linux in a future project is quite strong for embedded developers planning to use Linux.
• Embedded developers with no plans to use Linux cited technical, support, and licensing issues as the key reasons not to use Linux.
• While real-time requirements vary from application to application, VDC expects future applications in support of a diverse array of embedded applications will have increasing real-time requirements.
• The use of Linux in embedded projects continues to span most vertical markets; however, a majority of survey respondents cite telecom/datacom, military/aerospace, industrial automation, and consumer electronics as the industries where their embedded device and application being developed is targeted.

For more information, see “Linux in the Embedded Systems Market”

 
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