According to a mobile handset market forecast just published by the Probe Group, the mobile handset embedded operating system market will be led by Symbian, followed by Microsoft. Probe's research projects Symbian and Microsoft to lead all other OS vendors with 5% and 2.5% of the global market, respectively, by 2007. Additionally, Linux “could be positioned for a surge in Asian markets, particularly China,” the report said.

Probe research director David Chamberlain noted that over the past year a number of developments and changes in the overall wireless Internet world, as well as in the way the advanced handset market has shaped up, have contributed to the study's conclusions. These include . . .

• Continued delays in the rollout of 3G networks
• Declining in global PDA sales
• The release of Windows-powered Smartphone 2002 devices by Orange in the U.K., which was offset by the defection of handset vendors once committed to the new Microsoft OS
• The Announcement by Motorola of its commitment to a new line of Linux/Java handsets
• The acquisition of faltering Handspring by Palm, rescuing the company after its decision to produce only its PalmOS Treo Communicators

“While there are strong currents in the Nokia/Microsoft war, Nokia (and, therefore, Symbian) has the benefit of having observed from a safe distance the PC wars of the 1990s and had time to analyze Microsoft's role in the decline of the branded PC,” Chamberlain said. “It is from that perspective that Symbian will be able to forestall — but not entirely prevent — Microsoft from accomplishing the same result in the mobile handset world.”

Chamberlain also suggested that the ultimate success of Symbian or Microsoft will not be at the expense of Palm, RIM, Linux, or even PocketPC. “These rival operating systems will continue to serve their small core of techno-savvy users who want more than a phone but less than a laptop while away from their desks,” he said. “The ultimate outcome will be a result of political and commercial decisions, not the technical superiority of one OS or another. The key battle in the global handset market will come when Symbian and Smartphone begin to reach down to the proletarian handsets used by ordinary consumers.”

Probe's report, “Mobile Terminal Operating Systems,” examines the global demand for advanced handset operating systems including PalmOS, Symbian, Microsoft Smartphone, and Linux, and forecasts global sales and market penetration by each OS through 2007 including market drivers, disruptions, inhibitors, and obstacles affecting the market.

 
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